Can ultimate recoverable resources (URRs) be assessed? Does analyzing declining ore grades help?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Inspired by a paper Teseletso and Adachi (Miner Econ 8(10):21, 2021), the hypothesis regarding declining grade of mined copper ore its possible use as guide to future ultimate recoverable resources (URRs) is tested. As time axis, cumulative production taken. Grades can be either tonnage or annual grade. Correlation linear (grade tonnage) semi-logarithmic linear, logarithmic). We first show that assumption highest correlation best may fallacy. This between grades tonnages since 1959, i.e., 85% all historically with near-perfect approaching one ( R 2 = 0.97). leads implausibly low results URR, clearly demonstrating this trend must shift in future. Moreover, Adachi’s 2021) approach using erroneous results. Here, later calculation begins, lower extrapolated are at predetermined, postulated cutoff grades. contradicts accepted knowledge grades, resource base broadened—not narrowed. The only reasonable finding from logarithmic production, Lasky relationship, indicating URR 7.5 GT Cu, which 6.7 remain mined, equivalent close 325 years present production. towards Cu constant real prices shows potential for creative solutions other metal well.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Mineral economics
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2191-2203', '2191-2211']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-023-00368-0